Nigeria plans new model in tackle climate change challenge

An innovative model to support prospective analysis, planning of national and regional development, especially on climate change issues may soon be considered for adoption by stakeholders as a means of promoting open and participatory debates on development matters.

The new model known as Threshold 21  (T21) has implications of medium and long-term strategies as well as support the coordination of various sectors programmes and provides a “common language” for cooperation among stakeholders on strategic issues.

Towards facilitating its adoption by the model in Nigeria, a two-day national workshop on T21: Using an integrated model for climate change and development planning was organised by Africa Adaptation Programme (APP) of the Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, funded by the Government of Japan through the Japan International Co-operation Agency (JICA) with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), recently.

The T21 is also designed to help decision-making by deepening comprehension of the underlying problems and issues, improving understanding of possible consequences of policy choices, informing dialogue among stakeholders and clarifying decision makers and decision-makers’ assumptions and values.

The Director, Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, Dr. Samuel Adejuwon recalled that President Goodluck Jonathan pushed for greener economy at the just concluded UN Conference on sustainable development summit and re-affirmed government’s determination to create greater employment opportunities for Nigerians through the pursuit of a green economy.

Adejuwon said doing business as usual is not an acceptable and sustainable option as every country is trying to find effective ways to reduce the negative impact of climate change.

He disclosed that the economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, growing by 7.8 per cent annually, and it is projected to become the fifth largest country in the world by 2050, and the largest economy in Africa by 2015.

“But as the future appears, climate change pose challenges for our efforts. Projections by the World Bank shows vast areas of the north will likely face reduced rains and higher variability, which may reduce crop, yields. Climate change will accentuate risks and worsen vulnerabilities for poor households.”

He stated that the plan is to contribute a small team of experts spanning different environment backgrounds, share this documentation with them so that they can also add to the quality if what eventually becomes a knowledge product at the end of the day.

Addressing Climate Change Systemically, Chairman, Millennium Institute, John Shilling said that T21 as a systemic tool, deals with the complexity of climate change by integrating environmental, social, and economic structures into single framework, combines data and structures from relevant science, social, economic, and climatic models to generate a more comprehensive framework.

He said that it incorporates information from all relevant sources adapting T21 to a country helps to better understand the causal relations in these areas and generates scenarios to compare different policies and assumptions, not projections, which are not possible.

Shilling said that using dynamic T21 model would contribute a great in climate change issues such as drought, floods, heat, and sea level rise. “These environment changes impact back on the society and the economy – mostly negatively. Nigeria has recognized this and the need to incorporate more adaptive measures into its development strategy and to take account of the long-term effects.”